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可以你抓住一颗子弹像感冒的研究着眼于枪支暴力在流行病学的镜头

作者:admin 时间:2018-09-27

gun violence

Credit: Odyssey

You might sometimes see on the news headlines like 大发‘;Crime is spreading like the plague’; or ‘;Shootings outbreak in the holiday season’;。 Indeed, it seems like sometimes gun violence can spread very fast from an initial ‘;infectious’; source, not all that different from an outbreak or epidemic。 In fact, a group from Harvard and Yale found that the ‘;gun violence spreads like a plague’; metaphor is actually very accurate。

The team combed through gunshot and arrest data from the city of Chicago gathered between 2006 and 2014。 They then identified a huge network comprising 138,163 people, each connected together with various degrees based on how some people got arrested together。 The network represented 29。9 percent of those arrested in Chicago during the study’;s period and of these 9,773 people were involved in 11,123 gun-related crimes。

Different models were then run with the purpose of assessing and predicting how gun violence spreads through the network。 Each model took into account such things as ***, age, and neighborhood, but also —; very importantly —; who’;s in a network with someone who’;s been arrested or shot。

“Say you and I are friends and I’ve just been shot and we’re hanging out。 By spending time with me, you’re now being exposed to the risk factors that led to me being shot,” said Ben Green, coauthor of the new ***** and an applied mathematician at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences。

The model which best predicted how gun violence spreads through the networks was a contagious disease model, having predicted 63 percent of the shootings according to the study published in JAMA Internal Medicine

The Windy City saw 3,550 shooting incidents and 762 murders last year, the highest level of gun violence since 1996 and a 57 percent increase over 2015。 Around Christmas alone, some 100 people got shot in Chicago, most of whom had a history of gang affiliation and criminal records。

本文源自: 环亚娱乐

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